Ether's Potential for Meaningful Rallies May Be Limited in 2025, According to 10x Research

As the crypto market continues to evolve, investors are eager to know which assets will thrive in 2025. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, has shared his insights on Ethereum’s potential performance in the upcoming bull run.

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Underwhelming Returns for Ether?

Thielen suggests that Ethereum may not be the wisest investment choice for a 2025 bull run. According to him, the asset may deliver underwhelming returns compared to Bitcoin. This statement has sparked debate among analysts, with some waiting for more confirmation from price charts before making predictions.

Why Ethereum Struggles

Thielen attributes Ethereum’s potential struggles to its lack of "real demand" outside of staking. He argues that the growth rate of validators had turned negative, dropping by about 1% over the past 30 days. This trend raises concerns about the increasing risk of more validators exiting the network.

Unstaking and Validator Growth

Thielen believes that a rise in unstaking seems "logical" given the current market conditions. He points out that Ethereum lacks real demand outside of staking, which could lead to a decline in investor interest. However, not all analysts agree with this assessment.

Attestant’s Perspective on Demand

Tim Lowe, chief business officer at Attestant, recently shared his insights on the potential for Ether to increase its demand through refined marketing and a unified value proposition. He believes that diversification from Bitcoin can be a simple catalyst for Ethereum.

Comparing Ether and Bitcoin Returns

Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum in terms of returns since January 1, 2024. While Bitcoin is up 121.4%, Ether has only gained 46.3% over the same period. The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States contributed to Bitcoin’s strong performance.

Ether ETF Launch

The demand for US Ether ETFs was significantly less than that of Bitcoin ETFs, leading to a more bearish view of the asset. Thielen points out that Ethereum’s underperformance against Bitcoin is not a new trend and may continue in 2025.

Catalysts for Ethereum’s Growth

Thielen is skeptical about the potential impact of upcoming upgrades on Ethereum’s price performance. He notes that only two out of 19 upgrades have had a notable positive impact, both occurring during Bitcoin bull markets.

Pectra Upgrade and Validator Trends

The Pectra upgrade, due to be introduced in early 2025, may not bring significant benefits to Ethereum’s price. Thielen points out that the trend in active validators is a crucial metric to watch in 2025, as it could indicate a decline in investor interest.

Analyst Predictions for Ether

Not all analysts share Thielen’s pessimistic view on Ethereum’s potential performance. Cold Blooded Schiller predicts two possible scenarios for Ether: a price breakout or a breakdown to the Dec. 20 range low. Dal also offers a bullish and bearish scenario, while MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe is more optimistic about Ether’s prospects.

Conclusion

While Thielen’s analysis suggests that Ethereum may struggle in 2025, other analysts offer varying predictions for the asset’s performance. As always, investors should approach crypto investments with caution and carefully consider their options before making decisions.

Sources:

CoinMarketCap
TradingView
Cointelegraph

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This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.