Bitcoin Price 2025 Cycle Target Minimum Set at $175K According to Analyst
Despite the recent sideways volatility in the Bitcoin (BTC) price, there are indications that continuous buying pressure from investors is driving the market. As a result, the long-term price expectation for Bitcoin in 2025 remains high.
A Look at the Price Chart
The 1-day chart of Bitcoin shows that it has closed a daily candle above $95,000 every day since November 27. This indicates a strong upward trend and suggests that investors are confident about the future price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Target Range for 2025
According to Danny Marques, a Bitcoin mining industry researcher, the long-term price expectation for Bitcoin in 2025 is between $173K to $461K. Marques based his prediction on a study that evaluated the past three bull cycles and used Fibonacci extensions to determine the minimum and maximum target prices.
Fibonacci Extensions: A Powerful Tool for Predicting Prices
The use of Fibonacci extensions in predicting prices is a well-established method in technical analysis. The researcher explained that after ‘back-testing’ data over the past three cycles, Bitcoin has chronologically topped around the 3.618, 2.272, and 1.618 Fibonacci levels in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
The Minimum and Maximum Target Prices
According to Marques, the minimum target attained by BTC during each cycle is the 1.618 FIB level. Assuming that the macro does not deteriorate like in 2020, prior cycle observations show that Bitcoin could land anywhere between the 1.618 and the 2.272 fib.
In Fiat Terms
Marques added that this translates to a price range of $173,646 to $461,135 for one BTC in fiat terms.
A Similar Study by Cointelegraph
A similar study conducted by Cointelegraph in Q3 found that the minimum price target for BTC by the end of Q4 2025 was $199,998. However, the upper range was more conservative at $288,211 compared to Marques’ maximum price target of $461,135.
Historically Accurate ‘Decaying Peaks’ Study
A study conducted in Q3 also evaluated BTC targets for 2025-2026 based on decaying peaks from past cycle highs. The research used an exponential decay fit analysis and led to a minimum price target of $199,998 for BTC by the end of Q4 2025.
The Upper Range
However, the upper range was more conservative at $288,211 compared to Marques’ maximum price target of $461,135.
Bitcoin Miners: ‘Diamond Handing’ Their BTC
With Bitcoin crossing $100,000 on December 5, a wave of profit-taking has occurred over the past week, with long-term holders selling 827,783 BTC around the $99,200 mark. However, On-Chain College, an anonymous Bitcoin analyst, says that miners are ‘diamond handing’ their BTC in 2024.
Miner Net Position Change
The analyst explained that miners back in January 2021 (the beginning of the last bull run) were facilitating high-selling pressure, with Bitcoin miners’ net position change rising as high as 41,000 BTC. However, this has dropped down to 3,700 BTC in December 2024, which is a drop of almost 91%.
A New Wave of Hodling and Buying from Miners
The analyst added that long gone are the days of mine BTC and sell to cover costs plus keep profit. A new wave of more consistent hodling AND buying from miners is upon us.
Technical Standpoint: Price Expectations
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s price continues to coil at a higher price range, with immediate targets between $115,000 and $126,500. Unless BTC closes a daily candle below $95,000 or drops below $90,200, the crypto asset is expected to attain higher prices before the end of 2024.
Titan of Crypto’s Outlook
Titan of Crypto, an independent crypto analyst, shared a similar outlook, saying that BTC has ‘surged’ above the blue line on the ‘power law corridor.’ Based on historical data, the trader expected the BTC price to move rapidly, as ‘such breakouts often signal explosive upward moves.’
Conclusion
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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